Crude Oil

A naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. Although it is often called "black gold," crude oil has ranging viscosity and can vary in color to various shades of black and yellow depending on its hydrocarbon composition.

Distillation, the process by which oil is heated and separated in different components, is the first stage in refining.

United States oil consumption in 2012 will be about 4.7 million barrels a day, or 20%, lower than it would have been, if the pre-2005 trend in oil consumption growth of 1.5% per year had continued. This drop in consumption is no doubt related to a rise in oil prices starting about 2004.

Gross U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum products averaged 11.4 Mb/d in 2011, down 17% since 2005. More than a third of gross imports came from Canada and Mexico in 2011. About 40% came from members of the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), mostly from OPEC members outside the Persian Gulf.

Regionally, the largest share of U.S. imports come into the Gulf Coast region, which holds about half of U.S. refining capacity and sends petroleum products to other parts of the country and abroad. All regions of the country import more crude than refined products except for the East Coast, where petroleum products imports may rise further due to refinery closures.

U.S. oil exports, made up almost entirely of petroleum products, averaged 2.9 Mb/d in 2011. This is up from export of 1.2 Mb/d in 2005, led by growing export of distillates (diesel and related fuels) and gasoline.

More than 60% of U.S. exports went to countries in the Western Hemisphere, particularly to countries such as Mexico and Canada from which the U.S. imports crude oil. Exports occur largely as a result of commercial decisions by oil market participants which reflect current oil market conditions as well as past investment in refining.

US oil production stood at 8.13 mbpd at the end of 2013, up almost 21 per cent year-on-year, nothing less than extraordinary. This continuous rise in output data confirms the strong production growth in the US.

We expect by the end of the year US oil production to hit 8.75-8.9 mbpd, which is also bearish for crude oil. China's slowing economic conditions are also taking a toll on the demand for crude.

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